***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.12.2014.-21.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.0 12.7 11.0 96.9 62.0 52.0 5.6 9.4 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.2 10.0 96.4 62.4 51.7 4.5 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.3 14.2 11.0 94.2 60.6 52.1 6.1 10.5 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 14.6 12.2 104.3 64.8 52.7 6.8 10.6 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.6 13.7 11.7 98.5 61.6 51.9 6.0 10.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.9 11.6 11.8 100.3 62.7 49.4 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.9 9.6 94.6 61.7 50.7 4.7 7.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.6 12.3 95.0 60.0 50.9 9.1 14.0 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.2 12.3 98.0 60.9 52.6 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.1 12.4 94.8 59.5 51.5 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.1 10.9 94.2 60.0 50.7 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.3 11.6 100.9 62.5 51.6 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.0 15.1 11.8 105.0 64.3 52.4 7.0 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.1 12.4 91.7 59.3 51.2 8.0 13.3 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.0 12.4 99.9 64.1 47.9 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.2 11.1 99.7 62.4 51.3 5.5 8.9 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.5 9.8 107.8 66.1 53.4 4.2 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.6 13.4 95.4 59.5 51.8 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.7 10.6 98.2 62.8 52.8 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.3 14.2 86.8 56.1 48.4 7.1 12.1 18.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.7 11.6 97.1 60.9 51.8 5.2 9.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.2 10.8 114.9 68.3 55.1 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.7 11.4 99.4 63.1 54.1 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.3 15.1 12.5 95.0 60.1 52.3 6.0 11.1 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.5 12.5 97.9 62.0 51.8 3.5 7.5 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.7 11.8 102.1 63.4 50.4 5.7 9.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.2 11.8 96.7 61.8 51.6 4.2 8.3 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.2 11.7 100.9 64.0 50.0 5.3 8.7 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.6 13.8 91.6 57.9 50.2 10.8 17.6 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 10.5 10.1 92.4 60.7 50.8 4.9 8.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------