***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.2 11.7 110.7 65.8 54.2 3.6 7.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 13.6 11.9 117.5 68.5 55.2 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.1 14.3 11.3 101.9 62.2 51.3 5.8 10.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.4 11.3 99.9 62.2 51.6 5.8 9.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.1 11.6 97.2 60.2 49.3 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.2 11.0 92.5 58.1 49.8 5.1 8.9 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.8 11.9 118.9 69.0 55.3 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.0 11.7 88.0 55.8 47.3 8.5 13.1 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.9 12.2 96.5 59.4 48.1 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.3 12.2 90.5 56.4 46.9 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.9 12.6 10.7 92.7 58.2 48.2 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.0 10.5 90.3 57.0 47.8 5.9 9.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.1 11.0 91.9 57.3 48.9 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.0 13.2 94.9 58.8 48.8 7.2 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 12.4 10.4 94.6 61.6 50.5 3.5 7.9 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.5 10.5 93.9 58.8 49.2 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.7 12.1 120.4 69.6 55.3 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 8.9 13.4 89.1 55.7 46.7 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.1 14.1 11.8 113.1 66.8 54.4 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.9 15.2 86.5 55.3 47.8 6.3 10.4 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.9 11.7 11.8 100.0 61.1 49.8 4.9 8.6 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 14.8 12.7 123.5 70.6 56.3 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.7 11.0 11.7 102.7 62.6 51.7 4.4 7.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.2 10.9 12.5 92.8 57.8 47.8 5.0 8.8 13.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.1 15.1 12.7 106.8 64.0 53.3 5.7 10.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.2 10.3 86.4 55.0 46.8 4.5 8.0 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.3 12.9 114.7 67.3 55.5 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.9 10.7 97.8 61.9 50.7 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.8 16.0 14.2 88.3 55.7 47.3 8.7 14.0 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.7 13.6 11.7 114.2 67.2 54.8 4.5 8.2 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------