***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.2 7.3 67.6 48.4 41.1 3.4 6.5 11.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.0 6.8 69.0 50.3 41.7 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.3 7.3 67.8 48.9 41.9 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.2 8.4 72.1 51.4 45.0 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.0 8.7 74.6 52.4 45.5 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.8 8.7 75.3 51.8 44.9 4.6 7.5 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.7 6.7 67.4 49.1 41.2 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.6 9.6 83.1 55.8 46.7 7.8 11.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.4 9.2 76.6 53.1 46.0 4.0 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.3 9.7 81.1 54.9 46.7 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.2 8.1 76.5 53.0 44.9 5.4 8.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.5 8.3 79.7 54.5 45.8 4.9 8.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.2 8.4 76.2 52.6 45.3 5.0 8.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.3 10.9 9.2 74.3 51.5 43.9 6.3 10.5 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.0 8.4 72.3 52.8 45.5 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.2 7.9 73.8 52.1 44.9 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.1 7.1 74.1 53.3 43.8 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.1 10.5 82.4 55.5 47.1 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.7 6.9 68.7 50.1 41.6 3.9 6.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 12.6 86.4 57.5 48.2 5.1 8.4 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.5 8.4 72.6 51.1 44.0 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.3 7.6 77.2 54.0 44.5 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.8 7.2 68.0 49.4 41.5 3.4 5.9 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 9.6 9.0 74.8 51.8 44.2 5.2 9.1 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.0 8.4 69.7 49.9 42.4 4.3 8.0 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.2 8.6 79.6 54.4 46.1 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.7 7.9 68.1 48.6 40.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.6 8.3 73.2 52.5 45.7 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.0 11.1 83.3 55.5 47.0 7.2 12.0 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.8 6.7 66.9 48.8 41.1 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------