***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-04.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 41.9 38.5 38.7 92.3 51.9 48.8 27.5 37.4 48.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 39.3 35.9 35.7 91.0 51.3 48.2 25.7 35.1 45.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 52.1 49.1 40.8 93.4 52.4 49.4 37.4 47.6 58.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 52.4 52.0 43.8 97.0 56.0 51.0 38.1 48.1 59.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 51.6 52.1 47.4 101.5 58.0 53.1 39.6 47.8 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 42.2 42.1 44.4 99.8 56.5 52.1 29.7 38.4 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.1 38.7 34.8 90.7 51.3 47.5 27.4 37.8 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 67.9 69.1 50.2 102.0 58.4 54.1 55.1 64.2 73.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 41.2 41.7 49.8 102.2 58.6 53.6 29.6 37.5 45.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 50.5 51.7 52.2 103.1 59.1 54.5 39.5 47.2 55.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 48.2 49.3 45.3 102.1 58.6 53.9 37.7 45.2 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 48.3 49.7 44.9 102.8 59.2 54.4 36.3 44.8 53.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 48.9 51.2 46.5 104.2 59.9 55.5 35.7 45.1 55.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 65.9 64.7 51.0 97.2 54.8 51.7 49.7 61.3 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 32.6 47.9 40.6 91.7 53.6 46.8 33.0 45.0 59.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 44.9 46.2 44.1 102.4 58.7 54.0 32.5 41.3 50.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 40.7 38.7 35.1 95.1 54.7 50.1 26.0 35.7 46.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 46.6 47.5 56.0 102.2 58.5 54.4 36.4 43.6 51.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 44.2 40.9 37.7 92.2 51.9 48.9 29.3 39.7 51.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 55.1 53.0 59.8 95.9 54.0 50.7 40.4 50.6 61.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 47.0 45.2 44.8 97.1 54.9 50.7 33.5 42.6 52.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 41.5 40.7 38.2 98.9 57.0 52.5 26.7 36.3 47.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 41.8 39.7 41.6 94.3 53.0 49.9 29.4 38.1 47.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 57.1 56.6 50.4 98.7 56.0 52.4 44.6 53.4 62.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 47.5 44.7 44.6 94.1 52.7 49.4 32.1 42.7 54.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 45.2 45.1 43.8 99.6 56.8 52.1 31.4 41.0 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 46.5 42.9 41.8 92.9 52.0 49.0 30.1 41.3 54.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 46.4 45.5 42.2 96.5 56.0 50.0 32.8 42.0 52.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 76.5 76.4 57.6 99.5 56.4 52.8 62.6 72.4 82.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 41.8 37.5 36.3 90.2 50.5 47.7 27.1 37.1 48.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------