***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 -2.5 -3.0 -1.9 31.1 32.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.9 -2.8 -1.3 36.7 37.3 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.9 -1.0 -2.8 -1.4 35.9 36.6 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -7.8 -7.5 -6.0 -2.3 28.7 30.6 -7.0 -5.3 -3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -2.9 -4.7 -1.5 37.1 37.9 -3.3 -1.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -3.4 -6.4 -1.2 39.1 40.3 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -3.0 -2.9 -1.4 35.3 36.0 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -8.4 -8.5 -7.3 -2.7 27.2 30.1 -7.9 -6.3 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 -0.7 -1.3 -3.2 -0.5 45.7 45.9 -2.6 -0.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -3.0 -5.9 -2.0 33.4 35.2 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -2.7 -4.8 -1.2 39.3 40.4 -3.4 -1.7 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -3.9 -5.8 -1.8 34.1 35.8 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -3.4 -5.6 -1.5 36.1 37.2 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -2.0 -3.7 -1.2 36.4 37.6 -2.3 -0.8 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -1.9 -3.4 -0.7 42.7 43.2 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -2.1 -5.1 -1.2 39.0 39.9 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -1.2 -2.7 -2.7 -1.0 39.6 40.1 -3.4 -1.7 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -5.7 -6.1 -7.9 -3.5 19.8 23.3 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -2.6 -2.8 -1.3 36.4 37.1 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 -9.1 -10.5 -10.8 -4.9 11.8 16.7 -7.5 -5.7 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 -0.8 -2.0 -2.7 -1.0 40.9 41.4 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 -1.2 -2.5 -2.6 -1.0 40.2 40.6 -3.2 -1.6 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -2.8 -2.9 -1.3 36.0 36.7 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -3.4 -3.3 -4.8 -2.0 30.5 32.7 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -3.7 -3.2 -4.2 -1.9 31.6 32.8 -3.0 -1.3 0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 -3.7 -3.6 -6.1 -2.2 29.1 31.3 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -4.0 -3.4 -3.6 -1.9 30.3 31.5 -3.1 -1.2 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -3.6 -4.5 -1.2 39.2 40.1 -4.2 -2.6 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 -7.4 -8.3 -9.2 -4.2 14.2 19.0 -6.0 -4.3 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -2.8 -2.8 -1.5 34.8 35.6 -3.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------