***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 -2.0 -2.7 -0.4 43.9 44.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 -1.9 -2.5 -2.9 -0.3 45.6 46.0 -3.3 -2.2 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 -0.1 -0.5 -2.8 -0.2 47.3 47.7 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.2 -5.9 -5.8 -0.4 43.9 44.9 -6.5 -5.5 -4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.6 -5.0 -0.2 47.8 48.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 -2.9 -3.1 -6.1 0.2 53.0 53.5 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 -1.9 -2.6 -2.9 -0.4 44.6 45.1 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -6.8 -7.5 -6.3 -0.5 44.0 45.7 -8.1 -7.1 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 -1.5 -1.5 -3.8 0.3 53.4 53.4 -2.8 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -2.6 -5.6 -0.4 45.8 46.9 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.4 -5.0 0.1 51.1 51.7 -3.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -2.8 -3.2 -5.5 -0.1 49.2 50.4 -4.3 -3.1 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -2.3 -2.7 -5.7 -0.1 48.6 49.7 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.9 0.2 52.5 52.5 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -2.3 -4.3 0.2 53.5 53.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -1.5 -1.7 -5.5 0.1 51.0 51.8 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.7 -0.2 47.5 47.6 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.9 -5.1 -6.7 -0.9 38.9 41.1 -5.5 -4.3 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 -0.2 46.5 46.8 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -8.6 -8.5 -8.6 -1.7 29.4 33.5 -8.2 -6.8 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 -1.7 -2.0 -3.1 0.0 50.4 50.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.7 -0.1 48.2 48.3 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 -2.2 -2.4 -3.0 -0.1 48.6 48.8 -3.4 -2.4 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -2.6 -4.4 -0.2 48.0 48.7 -3.4 -2.4 -1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -2.4 -4.5 -0.4 44.8 45.6 -3.1 -2.1 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -3.1 -5.6 -0.4 45.1 46.7 -3.9 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -2.1 -3.6 -0.4 43.6 44.4 -2.9 -1.7 -0.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -3.1 -3.4 -5.0 0.1 51.1 51.5 -4.4 -3.4 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.3 -5.4 -7.3 -1.0 37.2 39.9 -5.7 -4.7 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.8 -0.4 44.7 45.2 -3.0 -2.0 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------