***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 3.4 1.6 -2.1 30.1 31.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.8 2.9 2.0 -1.4 36.6 37.5 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.4 3.8 2.0 -1.7 34.1 35.2 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.1 -1.3 -0.4 -1.7 34.7 36.3 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.5 0.3 -1.8 33.6 35.3 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.3 2.4 -1.2 -2.5 27.8 31.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 2.5 1.7 -1.6 34.7 35.7 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -0.3 -1.9 32.7 36.4 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.5 4.3 1.5 -1.5 36.4 37.9 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.3 0.4 -1.9 33.3 36.2 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.7 0.4 -1.7 34.7 36.7 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.3 3.5 0.0 -1.8 33.1 36.2 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.7 2.6 -0.3 -2.5 27.8 30.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.2 1.9 -1.4 37.5 39.1 3.7 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.8 3.9 1.7 -0.6 44.2 44.9 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.8 3.7 -0.1 -2.1 31.1 33.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.2 2.7 1.8 -1.3 38.1 38.9 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.5 1.5 -0.2 -2.3 29.4 33.4 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.4 3.4 2.1 -1.4 36.9 37.7 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.1 -0.1 -1.7 -2.6 25.8 32.0 0.8 2.6 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.3 3.8 1.7 -1.8 33.8 35.1 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 4.8 3.4 2.1 -1.1 39.5 40.2 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.3 3.4 2.1 -1.4 36.7 37.6 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.7 4.0 1.3 -1.8 33.9 36.2 3.8 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.4 0.3 -2.4 28.0 29.5 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.7 2.5 -0.6 -2.3 27.0 31.4 3.1 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.5 2.8 0.8 -2.5 27.1 28.4 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.3 3.6 0.5 -1.3 38.8 40.0 3.0 4.7 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -2.3 29.3 34.1 0.3 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.0 2.8 1.9 -1.6 34.9 35.8 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------