***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 4.6 3.0 0.8 58.3 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.5 2.9 0.9 59.2 57.6 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.1 3.2 0.9 59.1 57.7 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 62.3 60.6 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.8 1.7 1.1 61.4 59.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.2 1.3 1.0 61.1 59.1 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.8 4.1 2.7 0.8 58.1 56.7 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -0.7 -0.2 1.7 1.1 61.9 60.2 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.8 2.6 1.1 61.6 59.8 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 5.3 6.1 2.2 1.1 61.6 59.8 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.5 6.2 1.8 1.1 61.7 60.1 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.5 6.1 1.7 1.0 60.7 59.4 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.7 1.3 0.9 59.6 58.4 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.9 3.2 1.1 61.4 59.4 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 3.6 4.6 1.6 1.3 64.9 62.6 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.8 6.5 1.4 1.0 60.7 59.3 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.6 4.0 2.8 0.9 59.1 57.4 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.2 2.3 1.1 61.4 59.6 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.7 5.1 3.1 0.9 59.7 58.0 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.8 1.1 1.2 63.1 61.3 -0.5 1.4 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.1 2.9 1.0 60.3 58.8 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.7 3.0 0.9 59.6 57.8 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.0 3.3 1.0 60.2 58.4 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.9 3.0 1.0 60.7 59.0 3.4 5.5 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.6 1.7 0.9 60.2 58.6 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.9 1.3 0.8 59.5 58.6 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.6 2.3 0.7 58.1 56.8 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.6 1.4 1.2 63.4 61.4 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.8 1.9 1.2 62.9 61.0 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.5 3.0 0.8 58.8 57.4 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------