***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 6.1 3.8 1.4 63.6 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.1 3.8 1.8 66.4 65.1 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 7.3 6.8 4.0 1.5 63.9 63.0 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 62.4 62.0 -1.7 0.5 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.0 2.3 1.1 60.9 60.7 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.3 1.8 0.9 59.1 59.0 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 5.0 4.8 3.7 1.8 66.1 64.6 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.3 2.1 0.9 59.2 59.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.8 6.8 3.2 1.2 61.0 60.7 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.7 2.7 1.0 59.4 59.5 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 7.0 6.0 2.3 1.0 60.4 60.4 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 7.4 6.4 2.2 0.9 59.7 59.9 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.7 1.8 0.8 58.9 59.2 2.6 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 8.1 7.4 3.9 1.5 63.9 62.8 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.3 5.7 2.1 1.4 64.9 63.9 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.5 6.6 1.9 1.0 60.2 60.1 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.7 3.8 1.9 66.9 65.3 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.8 2.7 1.0 59.3 59.4 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.0 4.0 1.8 66.1 65.0 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.5 1.2 0.8 58.3 58.8 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 7.2 6.5 3.6 1.3 62.0 61.4 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.6 3.9 1.8 66.5 65.1 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.2 5.7 4.1 1.7 65.5 64.4 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.3 7.4 3.7 1.3 62.0 61.4 3.4 5.7 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.8 2.3 1.2 62.4 61.8 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.2 1.7 0.8 59.1 59.5 2.5 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.5 3.1 1.3 62.8 61.8 2.7 4.9 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.5 6.8 2.0 1.3 63.2 62.5 2.7 5.0 7.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 4.1 3.2 2.2 1.0 59.7 59.7 0.0 2.1 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.1 3.9 1.7 65.7 64.5 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------