***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 3.9 2.5 -0.2 47.0 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 4.0 3.9 2.5 0.1 51.7 51.5 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 5.6 5.3 2.8 0.0 49.5 49.5 4.2 5.3 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.1 51.7 51.7 -0.6 0.4 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.2 4.9 1.3 0.0 50.3 50.5 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.3 0.6 -0.1 48.0 48.6 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 3.8 3.5 2.4 0.0 50.2 50.1 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.8 1.1 0.0 50.5 50.7 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.9 5.7 2.2 0.1 51.8 51.6 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.9 1.6 0.0 50.2 50.3 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.2 1.4 0.1 51.2 51.3 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.3 1.2 0.0 50.0 50.3 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.7 0.9 -0.2 46.6 47.6 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.0 5.9 2.7 0.2 53.2 52.7 4.4 5.7 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.6 58.6 57.7 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.5 1.0 -0.1 49.1 49.6 4.3 5.6 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 3.5 3.5 2.5 0.2 52.5 52.1 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.9 1.5 -0.1 48.4 48.8 2.1 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 4.6 4.5 2.7 0.1 52.0 51.7 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.6 1.8 0.2 -0.1 48.1 48.7 0.7 1.9 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 5.6 5.2 2.5 0.0 49.6 49.7 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 4.2 4.1 2.7 0.2 53.1 52.7 2.9 3.9 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.5 4.4 2.9 0.2 52.2 51.9 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 6.1 5.8 2.4 0.0 50.5 50.4 4.4 5.7 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.3 3.8 1.2 -0.2 46.7 47.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.2 0.8 -0.2 46.8 47.9 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.5 4.8 1.8 -0.3 45.1 45.6 3.9 5.1 6.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.1 1.2 0.3 54.6 54.2 3.8 4.8 5.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.0 1.1 0.0 50.1 50.2 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 4.1 3.8 2.6 0.0 50.4 50.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------