***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 1.6 3.2 28.5 25.0 23.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 1.5 1.2 1.7 17.3 15.2 14.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 2.1 1.8 3.0 25.8 20.6 19.5 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 4.2 4.8 4.7 37.4 29.9 27.4 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.0 4.2 5.7 42.9 30.9 28.2 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 3.8 5.8 51.7 39.7 33.4 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 2.0 1.8 1.8 19.8 17.7 17.0 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 7.6 9.2 6.4 47.1 33.9 28.0 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.0 3.2 5.4 39.9 30.1 27.4 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.9 5.7 6.6 46.6 34.8 30.4 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.6 4.5 5.8 46.1 35.0 30.3 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 3.9 4.9 5.6 46.2 33.4 27.3 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.8 5.6 6.7 54.9 39.4 34.1 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 4.6 4.5 4.3 29.9 24.5 22.7 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.7 24.6 24.0 21.0 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.4 5.6 47.3 34.0 29.4 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 1.8 1.4 1.5 16.5 15.1 14.5 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 5.4 6.8 44.7 33.9 29.8 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 1.8 1.3 1.8 16.9 14.5 14.0 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.2 5.1 7.0 42.8 31.1 25.9 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.3 3.5 4.4 34.7 27.9 26.0 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 2.3 1.4 1.3 13.5 12.0 11.5 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 2.1 1.5 2.2 18.7 15.5 14.8 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 4.4 4.7 5.1 35.6 27.9 25.4 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.0 5.3 39.7 30.6 29.2 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.7 4.6 5.2 45.0 33.0 27.5 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.5 3.2 4.4 35.7 29.6 28.3 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 2.3 2.7 3.9 34.3 28.3 24.8 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 7.2 8.3 7.0 44.3 32.8 28.6 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 1.6 1.5 2.0 19.9 17.0 16.4 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------