***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 3.6 4.1 34.5 25.2 21.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 2.7 3.3 3.7 33.9 27.0 20.3 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.3 34.7 26.3 21.7 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 5.2 5.3 4.8 35.8 26.6 21.9 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 5.1 4.6 4.8 35.2 24.4 21.1 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 4.0 4.1 5.5 37.7 25.9 21.1 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 2.9 3.5 3.6 33.5 26.0 19.9 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 6.1 7.1 5.4 38.3 27.8 22.1 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.9 5.2 36.9 24.5 21.9 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 4.0 3.9 5.4 37.1 25.4 21.8 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 3.3 3.4 4.7 36.6 25.7 21.3 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 3.0 3.5 4.9 39.4 28.3 22.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 5.1 5.4 4.9 37.4 25.1 20.3 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 5.3 5.5 5.3 36.1 26.4 22.4 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.5 33.6 29.5 22.3 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 4.7 4.9 4.8 37.4 25.8 21.0 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 3.0 3.7 3.5 32.7 27.6 20.3 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.3 6.0 38.0 25.6 22.4 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.6 4.0 34.5 27.5 20.8 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 4.3 4.8 6.8 37.8 27.3 22.0 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.8 36.6 25.8 22.4 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 2.1 2.5 3.6 31.9 27.1 20.1 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.9 3.1 4.5 36.1 28.5 22.0 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 3.9 3.7 5.3 37.0 26.8 22.8 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.8 4.4 32.3 22.2 19.8 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 3.7 3.9 4.6 36.5 26.0 20.0 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.4 4.2 32.9 22.6 19.8 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 4.1 4.5 4.7 35.2 27.8 21.6 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 6.4 6.5 6.4 38.3 25.7 22.3 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.8 33.8 26.1 20.3 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------