***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 15.1 21.8 49.4 15.8 19.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 22.3 17.8 19.6 49.2 17.5 21.2 26.2 35.9 47.0 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 32.9 27.2 22.0 49.0 15.4 19.1 38.2 48.3 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 32.8 29.2 23.9 50.2 17.2 20.1 38.8 48.8 59.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 34.7 31.6 26.0 53.9 16.6 20.3 39.9 48.0 56.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 25.0 21.5 25.8 56.8 16.2 20.9 30.3 39.1 48.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 23.3 18.0 19.3 49.4 16.9 20.6 28.0 38.8 51.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 50.5 47.4 28.6 57.1 18.5 22.7 55.7 64.5 73.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 25.3 22.2 27.4 55.0 16.9 20.7 29.5 37.3 45.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 35.6 32.9 29.6 57.5 18.1 22.2 39.6 46.9 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 34.2 31.4 25.4 56.3 18.0 22.0 38.2 45.4 52.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 31.5 28.1 24.9 56.8 17.9 22.6 35.9 44.7 53.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 31.9 27.9 26.0 58.4 16.9 22.0 36.8 45.8 55.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 40.5 34.6 27.3 51.6 14.3 18.9 48.6 60.8 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 26.8 21.9 20.4 44.1 17.3 19.9 32.9 45.6 59.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 28.4 24.8 24.3 56.0 17.1 21.5 33.1 41.5 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 22.1 18.2 18.6 48.9 18.3 21.4 26.6 37.0 48.6 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 32.4 29.5 32.3 57.7 18.0 22.5 36.4 43.6 51.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 24.8 19.9 20.4 49.2 17.3 21.1 29.3 39.9 51.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 37.1 33.1 35.3 54.9 17.9 22.2 42.2 51.8 62.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 28.0 24.9 25.0 52.5 16.6 20.0 33.7 42.5 51.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 22.9 18.5 19.2 47.3 16.5 20.3 27.7 37.6 48.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 25.0 21.0 22.3 49.8 16.5 20.5 29.7 38.4 48.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 38.7 34.9 28.0 53.9 16.1 20.4 44.4 53.2 62.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 27.0 21.7 25.7 50.8 15.8 18.9 32.6 43.0 54.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 26.5 21.5 23.8 54.3 15.8 20.8 31.4 40.9 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 24.5 18.9 24.4 50.9 15.7 19.1 30.1 41.5 54.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 27.6 24.7 22.1 48.9 17.5 20.4 33.2 42.2 52.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 56.5 51.9 33.8 56.9 17.4 22.0 62.3 72.7 83.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 23.4 17.7 20.0 48.7 16.5 20.3 27.4 37.9 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------