***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 0.7 2.4 3.2 4.9 86.9 84.1 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 0.7 2.4 2.7 4.6 86.9 84.0 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 2.5 3.8 2.9 4.5 85.8 82.9 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -2.5 -0.8 0.3 4.4 86.4 83.8 -7.0 -5.2 -3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 0.1 1.6 1.4 4.7 86.5 83.7 -3.9 -2.3 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 -0.5 0.7 -1.0 4.2 85.4 83.4 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 0.5 2.3 2.9 4.8 87.5 84.5 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -4.5 -3.0 -0.5 4.7 86.1 83.1 -8.8 -7.1 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 1.0 2.4 1.1 4.3 85.2 82.5 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 0.1 1.4 -0.1 4.5 85.3 82.5 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 0.4 1.6 0.6 4.4 85.3 82.6 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 -0.2 1.2 0.2 4.6 86.0 83.0 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 0.0 1.0 -0.3 4.2 84.2 81.4 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 1.2 2.4 0.9 4.5 84.8 81.8 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 -0.2 1.2 1.2 3.8 85.4 82.7 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 0.8 1.9 0.1 4.3 85.1 82.5 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 0.3 1.9 2.8 4.7 87.4 84.4 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 -1.5 -0.2 -0.5 4.6 85.1 82.1 -6.1 -4.3 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 0.7 2.3 2.5 4.4 86.1 83.3 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 5.1 86.5 83.1 -8.7 -6.5 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 0.9 2.5 2.4 4.5 86.0 83.2 -3.6 -1.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 0.7 2.1 2.6 4.5 86.5 83.5 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 0.2 1.6 2.2 4.2 85.2 82.5 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 -0.1 1.0 0.7 4.3 84.3 81.4 -4.0 -2.5 -1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 0.3 1.9 2.5 4.8 87.6 84.6 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 4.3 84.8 81.9 -3.8 -2.4 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 1.5 3.5 3.0 4.9 87.0 84.0 -3.3 -1.4 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 -0.8 0.6 0.4 4.2 85.2 82.7 -5.0 -3.4 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 -1.4 0.1 -1.0 4.8 85.7 82.6 -6.2 -4.4 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 0.8 2.5 2.8 4.7 86.9 84.0 -3.2 -1.6 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------