***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 7.4 8.1 7.5 2.8 79.8 78.6 3.1 4.8 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 6.6 7.1 7.3 2.7 77.8 76.5 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 8.4 9.0 7.9 2.9 78.8 77.5 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 3.0 3.2 4.5 2.4 74.3 72.9 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 8.1 8.5 6.2 2.6 77.0 75.7 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 7.3 7.7 4.9 2.5 75.5 74.2 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 6.4 6.9 7.1 2.6 78.0 76.8 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 1.6 1.8 4.9 2.2 71.1 70.0 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 8.6 9.0 6.9 2.5 76.3 75.0 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 7.4 7.7 5.8 2.5 73.7 72.4 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 8.1 8.5 6.5 2.5 75.7 74.4 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.2 5.3 2.2 72.5 71.3 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.0 6.1 2.3 73.4 72.0 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 8.7 9.2 7.5 3.0 77.1 75.7 3.7 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.3 6.0 1.9 71.3 70.0 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 8.5 9.0 5.9 2.4 75.4 74.0 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 5.8 6.2 6.6 2.4 75.5 74.2 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 5.2 5.5 5.5 2.5 73.3 72.1 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 7.4 8.0 7.5 2.8 78.1 76.8 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 4.5 4.7 3.9 2.1 69.9 68.9 0.8 2.6 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 8.2 8.7 7.6 2.7 77.9 76.6 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 6.5 6.9 6.9 2.4 75.4 73.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 7.2 7.8 7.6 2.9 78.3 76.9 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 8.9 9.3 7.4 2.9 76.9 75.6 3.8 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 7.1 7.8 6.7 2.8 79.4 78.0 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.7 4.6 1.9 70.9 69.8 3.1 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 8.2 9.0 7.1 2.8 79.9 78.7 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.1 5.3 2.2 72.1 70.8 3.0 4.7 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 4.1 4.4 4.9 2.4 72.7 71.6 0.3 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 6.8 7.4 7.5 2.8 79.1 77.8 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------