***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 6.9 9.4 9.4 5.7 90.8 87.1 2.3 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 6.9 9.2 9.2 5.6 89.8 85.9 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 8.8 11.5 10.0 5.8 90.0 86.1 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 3.5 5.9 6.4 5.1 88.7 84.8 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 8.0 10.7 8.2 5.5 90.7 86.7 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 7.5 10.3 7.6 5.6 91.7 87.4 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 6.5 9.0 9.1 5.6 90.4 86.5 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 1.4 3.5 7.7 5.5 90.7 86.2 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 8.8 11.6 8.9 5.4 90.2 86.3 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.8 10.5 8.5 5.7 90.7 86.1 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 8.3 10.9 8.6 5.6 90.6 86.6 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 8.5 11.3 7.9 5.3 90.5 86.6 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 8.3 11.2 8.4 5.6 90.9 87.1 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 9.5 12.6 9.8 6.0 90.0 84.9 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 6.1 7.5 6.8 4.1 84.8 81.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 8.8 11.7 8.2 5.7 91.2 87.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 6.2 8.5 8.9 5.4 90.3 86.0 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 5.5 8.1 8.6 5.9 90.9 85.8 1.0 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 7.8 10.4 9.5 5.6 89.5 85.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 5.0 7.7 7.0 5.6 91.2 85.7 0.5 2.3 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 8.6 11.3 9.6 5.6 90.5 86.7 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 7.1 9.4 9.0 5.3 89.4 85.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 7.5 9.8 9.7 5.6 89.1 85.2 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 8.7 11.5 9.7 5.9 90.4 85.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 6.9 9.4 8.6 5.8 91.8 87.7 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 7.1 9.2 7.2 4.9 90.3 86.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 8.4 11.4 9.3 5.9 92.0 87.9 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 7.9 10.0 6.9 4.8 87.0 83.2 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 5.3 8.1 7.9 5.8 90.9 85.8 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 7.0 9.3 9.3 5.6 89.9 86.2 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------