***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.2 10.4 12.7 114.7 68.6 62.0 3.1 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.4 13.2 12.1 124.6 71.4 64.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.5 11.5 12.1 105.7 65.8 60.0 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.9 13.6 12.7 103.5 65.5 57.6 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 8.4 10.6 14.1 106.4 66.0 59.4 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.2 8.2 12.6 109.5 67.1 59.5 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 14.4 15.9 12.6 134.6 74.0 67.0 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 14.8 19.0 16.5 113.8 68.3 61.0 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.5 9.3 12.7 101.7 64.4 58.5 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.1 12.7 15.6 107.9 66.1 59.7 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 8.1 11.7 15.5 116.3 69.0 61.6 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 8.8 11.8 14.5 113.0 68.2 60.8 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.3 11.1 16.1 115.9 68.8 62.2 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 13.8 16.6 14.8 96.6 62.4 57.5 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.3 11.9 10.4 97.7 64.6 55.4 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.3 10.6 14.6 113.8 68.4 61.2 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 13.8 16.1 13.7 145.8 76.6 70.4 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 9.5 11.8 15.7 103.7 64.8 59.7 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.2 14.8 12.1 115.9 69.0 62.8 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 10.3 14.1 18.9 109.2 67.1 61.0 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 8.3 10.2 12.1 100.1 64.1 57.7 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 14.6 16.5 14.2 136.8 74.3 68.6 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 9.9 13.3 12.5 107.7 66.7 60.9 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 11.6 14.4 13.6 97.4 62.7 57.4 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 6.6 8.7 13.7 106.9 66.5 59.4 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.0 12.4 14.0 114.4 68.6 61.1 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.1 11.3 12.9 113.3 68.3 61.5 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.0 9.9 11.3 99.5 64.6 56.3 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 14.8 18.7 16.5 103.5 64.8 59.8 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 13.5 14.2 11.9 119.2 70.0 63.3 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------