***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.4 10.1 80.8 55.0 42.7 4.8 8.2 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.0 10.8 97.2 62.6 47.5 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.3 11.7 10.5 84.4 57.1 43.7 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.5 11.6 11.0 80.6 55.5 43.6 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.0 10.2 9.0 68.5 47.9 37.6 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.3 8.6 8.7 67.1 48.3 39.6 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.0 10.1 91.3 60.3 46.0 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.4 13.1 10.0 69.7 48.7 38.1 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.6 7.9 9.1 68.3 47.3 36.3 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.1 9.1 9.5 69.1 48.0 36.4 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.9 7.7 9.1 68.0 47.7 37.7 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 7.5 9.3 68.9 48.7 39.4 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.5 10.1 8.7 62.9 46.1 37.3 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.6 14.0 12.4 85.9 56.9 42.1 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.3 12.5 94.7 62.1 47.9 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.9 9.1 8.8 66.4 46.9 37.8 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.2 10.7 96.8 62.7 47.0 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.7 10.3 72.0 50.0 36.2 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.0 11.0 96.4 62.2 47.0 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 11.5 14.0 74.2 51.4 39.0 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 5.1 9.7 9.8 74.8 50.8 39.3 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.7 11.6 100.9 64.2 47.6 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.6 11.2 91.9 60.1 45.2 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.8 10.9 11.0 80.2 54.1 39.5 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.4 10.7 77.6 53.0 41.3 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.2 9.2 10.1 73.2 51.5 41.7 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.3 10.5 80.7 54.7 43.0 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.3 9.6 10.5 82.2 56.5 44.6 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.2 16.0 11.5 74.1 51.1 37.5 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.2 9.0 10.6 92.1 60.5 46.0 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------