***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.6 9.8 85.5 56.9 43.6 3.9 7.5 12.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 11.4 9.5 94.9 61.2 44.8 4.8 8.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.1 13.1 10.1 87.9 58.0 45.1 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.9 11.2 10.4 79.9 54.6 43.6 6.0 9.9 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.9 11.8 10.8 84.9 55.7 44.0 6.1 10.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.8 11.6 11.6 95.9 61.0 47.4 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.4 9.1 94.3 61.1 44.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.1 16.6 12.9 96.4 60.4 47.7 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.9 11.6 88.0 56.7 44.9 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.3 12.7 94.3 59.3 46.9 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.8 11.8 11.3 91.4 58.3 45.9 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.5 12.4 11.8 96.5 60.7 47.5 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.0 12.1 96.4 60.7 46.6 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.9 15.9 14.1 97.3 60.9 48.2 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 10.2 79.7 56.7 44.2 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.1 11.2 91.8 58.9 45.9 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.1 9.3 98.7 63.0 45.9 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.4 13.4 95.8 59.8 47.0 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.7 10.0 95.2 61.3 46.0 4.4 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.2 12.3 15.8 93.4 59.3 47.2 5.3 9.5 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.6 9.8 10.6 84.5 55.6 43.6 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.4 10.2 100.1 63.6 47.5 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.2 10.9 95.5 61.1 47.6 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.9 12.6 94.3 59.5 46.9 5.5 9.2 14.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.4 11.5 10.3 81.0 54.6 42.3 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.6 12.2 98.3 62.0 47.5 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.9 10.1 85.3 56.7 43.1 4.7 8.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.7 10.2 82.1 56.3 44.7 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.2 17.6 14.5 97.3 60.4 47.9 8.3 13.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.1 9.6 91.9 60.2 44.7 4.4 8.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------