***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 14.1 14.5 141.6 75.7 57.8 3.4 6.3 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.9 14.3 12.9 145.4 76.6 58.9 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 17.7 14.2 140.0 75.3 58.4 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.1 16.0 13.8 118.1 69.7 55.6 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.5 14.8 14.1 119.2 69.6 56.3 5.5 9.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.5 11.4 12.1 109.8 66.5 55.9 4.4 7.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.9 15.8 12.4 144.4 76.3 58.0 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 17.4 13.9 109.1 66.1 55.4 7.8 12.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.3 14.9 122.5 70.5 56.9 4.5 7.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.6 13.8 14.8 116.5 68.5 56.6 4.9 8.4 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.5 12.8 13.3 113.9 67.8 56.2 5.4 8.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.8 12.3 105.0 64.7 54.3 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.0 12.6 12.5 104.9 64.7 54.9 5.2 8.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 20.1 16.7 132.9 73.5 60.1 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 12.9 12.8 108.7 67.9 53.2 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.8 12.6 110.9 66.8 55.5 4.5 7.6 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.3 14.3 11.9 138.9 75.0 58.3 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.0 15.6 120.4 69.7 57.6 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.7 15.0 13.5 146.1 76.7 59.5 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 14.3 17.9 113.1 67.4 56.1 5.3 9.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.4 14.5 15.0 131.5 73.1 57.5 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.3 13.4 12.9 137.2 74.6 59.1 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 11.2 13.3 14.4 144.3 76.3 60.1 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.6 16.3 15.2 128.2 72.2 58.6 4.4 8.2 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.4 16.9 16.1 136.0 74.4 57.7 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.9 11.7 100.6 63.3 54.5 4.4 7.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 15.9 15.2 140.6 75.5 58.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.7 12.4 111.3 67.9 54.7 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 21.4 20.8 16.4 120.4 69.7 57.7 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.4 14.6 13.3 144.3 76.3 58.5 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------