***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.3 44.0 47.0 104.0 60.0 52.8 27.4 37.5 48.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 41.0 47.4 45.3 114.1 66.5 58.1 26.2 35.9 47.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 53.2 54.3 46.8 103.0 59.2 53.0 38.2 48.3 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 53.7 51.2 47.9 94.7 53.8 49.3 38.8 48.8 59.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 39.4 49.4 47.9 94.2 52.5 48.5 39.9 48.0 56.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.3 41.2 45.0 94.5 53.9 49.7 30.3 39.1 48.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 44.7 51.9 44.1 114.3 66.6 58.2 28.0 38.8 51.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 68.3 67.2 53.3 97.0 55.0 50.1 55.7 64.5 73.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 28.7 38.4 48.4 94.4 52.4 48.4 29.5 37.3 45.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 50.3 48.7 52.6 96.9 54.3 49.6 39.6 46.9 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 48.2 47.5 49.1 96.9 54.8 50.4 38.2 45.4 52.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 48.3 46.7 47.8 95.3 54.1 49.7 35.9 44.7 53.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 49.8 47.7 49.5 94.7 53.6 49.2 36.8 45.8 55.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 66.1 67.0 58.1 102.1 58.3 53.3 48.6 60.8 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 50.8 50.4 45.8 94.8 55.9 51.1 32.9 45.6 59.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 45.1 43.5 47.3 95.0 53.7 49.3 33.1 41.5 50.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 51.0 51.4 45.7 118.6 69.1 60.7 26.6 37.0 48.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 35.4 45.6 54.9 97.7 54.7 49.5 36.4 43.6 51.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 45.4 51.4 46.5 112.1 65.3 57.4 29.3 39.9 51.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.4 54.7 66.5 97.1 54.9 49.2 42.2 51.8 62.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 33.3 44.8 47.5 96.7 54.3 49.3 33.7 42.5 51.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 42.3 50.7 48.8 117.8 68.5 59.9 27.7 37.6 48.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 43.0 45.9 48.9 108.5 63.0 56.2 29.7 38.4 48.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 57.7 56.3 52.4 99.1 56.0 51.0 44.4 53.2 62.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 48.9 47.3 50.8 99.3 56.4 50.5 32.6 43.0 54.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 45.5 43.9 48.0 95.9 55.0 50.8 31.4 40.9 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 30.1 48.8 48.7 103.5 59.5 52.5 30.1 41.5 54.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 46.2 44.3 44.5 93.1 53.7 49.4 33.2 42.2 52.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 78.0 76.1 58.8 98.3 55.3 49.8 62.3 72.7 83.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 43.4 48.3 45.3 110.3 64.2 56.3 27.4 37.9 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------