***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 2.3 1.4 -1.6 30.8 35.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.2 1.9 0.3 -2.4 22.7 29.1 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.0 1.7 -1.4 32.7 36.7 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.6 -1.8 28.4 31.9 -0.7 0.4 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.8 0.6 -1.3 34.8 37.5 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.1 0.7 -0.4 44.4 45.8 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.8 1.5 0.1 -2.4 22.1 28.6 2.3 3.4 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -1.3 1.0 -0.6 42.4 43.9 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 4.7 1.6 -1.0 37.9 40.3 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.3 1.4 -0.7 41.5 43.2 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.3 1.1 -0.8 39.7 41.7 3.8 5.1 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.6 4.8 1.3 -0.5 43.6 44.9 4.0 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.7 1.3 -0.3 46.7 47.6 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.8 1.9 -1.0 37.8 40.7 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.2 2.3 -0.2 -2.0 26.3 30.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.9 4.9 0.9 -0.7 41.5 43.3 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.2 -0.1 -2.7 20.1 26.8 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.3 2.6 1.5 -0.5 43.7 45.0 2.0 3.0 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 2.5 0.7 -2.2 25.5 31.3 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.3 1.3 0.1 -0.5 42.3 43.8 0.7 1.9 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.2 1.7 -1.2 35.4 38.4 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.3 2.0 0.3 -2.4 22.4 28.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.7 2.8 1.4 -1.7 30.3 35.1 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.0 2.0 -0.8 40.5 42.7 4.4 5.7 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.5 2.7 0.2 -1.6 30.1 33.9 2.9 4.0 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.2 1.2 -0.2 47.5 48.2 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 3.6 0.8 -1.6 30.3 34.6 3.8 5.1 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.4 3.6 -0.1 -1.7 30.2 33.5 3.8 4.8 5.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.3 1.6 1.0 -0.4 44.5 45.7 0.9 1.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.3 2.1 0.7 -2.2 25.1 31.0 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------