***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 2.0 0.9 -2.1 29.9 36.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.7 1.4 -0.2 -3.0 23.4 32.6 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.8 1.1 -2.1 31.2 37.2 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -1.0 -2.4 28.4 34.2 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.6 3.3 0.0 -2.0 32.7 37.3 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.6 0.3 -1.1 39.6 43.1 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.0 -0.3 -3.0 23.0 32.5 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.7 -1.7 0.6 -1.2 38.9 42.5 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.1 1.0 -1.7 35.4 39.3 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.8 0.9 -1.3 38.1 41.6 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.0 0.5 -1.5 36.5 40.2 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.4 0.9 -1.0 40.2 43.3 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.3 0.8 -0.8 41.9 44.8 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.5 1.2 -1.6 35.2 39.9 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.7 1.8 -0.8 -2.4 27.7 33.5 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.4 0.3 -1.4 37.5 41.1 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.4 0.8 -0.8 -3.3 20.8 30.4 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.0 1.1 -1.1 40.0 43.6 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.1 0.2 -2.7 25.5 33.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -0.1 1.0 -0.1 -1.1 38.8 43.7 0.3 2.2 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.9 3.8 1.1 -1.8 33.5 38.2 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.8 1.5 -0.4 -3.2 22.7 31.4 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.0 2.5 0.8 -2.3 29.4 36.2 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.3 4.5 1.5 -1.4 37.2 41.2 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.9 2.3 -0.3 -2.2 29.2 35.8 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.1 1.2 -0.4 45.8 47.9 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.7 3.2 0.4 -2.2 29.5 36.6 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.5 -0.7 -2.3 30.0 35.1 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.4 0.8 -0.9 40.8 44.7 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.6 0.2 -2.7 25.6 34.2 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------