***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 2.6 2.0 -0.3 47.5 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.7 1.3 -0.7 42.8 47.4 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.9 2.3 -0.1 48.6 50.9 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 44.9 48.4 -1.4 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.6 1.2 -0.1 49.5 51.4 2.7 4.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.6 1.0 0.4 54.6 55.2 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.0 2.3 1.1 -0.8 42.2 47.2 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.7 1.5 0.4 53.7 54.4 -2.5 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.8 2.2 0.2 52.2 53.1 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.2 1.9 0.4 53.6 54.2 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.1 1.5 0.2 51.7 53.0 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.4 1.6 0.3 53.5 54.2 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.2 1.3 0.4 54.4 54.8 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.8 2.5 0.2 51.9 53.0 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.2 0.3 -0.8 41.8 46.2 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.6 1.2 0.2 51.7 53.0 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.0 1.1 -0.8 41.7 46.6 1.1 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.6 1.9 0.4 54.3 54.8 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.4 1.7 -0.6 44.6 48.4 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.3 52.7 54.1 -0.6 1.3 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.1 2.3 0.1 50.6 52.0 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.0 1.6 -0.6 43.9 47.8 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.5 3.6 2.3 -0.2 47.7 50.3 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.9 2.5 0.3 52.8 53.7 3.3 5.6 7.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.4 0.8 -0.2 47.4 50.1 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.7 1.3 0.5 55.3 55.3 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.3 1.4 -0.2 47.4 50.2 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.7 0.5 -0.5 44.8 48.2 2.3 4.3 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.4 54.0 54.7 -0.4 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.3 2.9 1.6 -0.6 44.1 48.2 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------