***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 3.8 2.6 0.1 51.1 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 0.9 3.1 2.1 -0.2 48.3 49.6 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.9 2.9 0.2 51.5 51.2 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.3 -0.2 0.7 -0.3 46.9 48.7 -2.1 0.3 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.4 1.6 0.0 50.2 50.6 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.4 1.2 0.2 52.0 52.5 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.7 2.7 1.9 -0.2 47.9 49.5 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -1.0 1.6 0.3 52.7 52.6 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.5 2.5 0.2 52.0 51.4 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.6 2.1 0.2 52.4 52.0 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.8 1.9 0.2 52.5 52.1 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.6 1.9 0.4 53.8 53.3 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.0 1.6 0.4 53.9 53.6 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.3 5.4 2.8 0.2 51.7 51.1 2.8 5.2 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.3 0.8 -0.5 45.2 47.7 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.4 1.5 0.3 52.6 52.4 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.5 1.9 -0.3 46.8 48.4 1.0 2.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.8 2.1 0.2 52.3 51.9 0.9 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.6 2.4 -0.1 49.3 50.0 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -1.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 51.0 51.8 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.0 2.7 0.2 51.8 51.3 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.2 3.3 2.3 -0.2 48.3 49.2 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 2.9 0.1 50.8 50.7 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.9 2.8 0.2 52.4 51.6 3.3 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.2 1.2 -0.2 48.3 49.6 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.5 1.4 0.4 54.3 54.1 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.6 1.9 0.0 49.8 50.6 2.5 4.7 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.1 1.0 -0.3 47.6 49.2 2.0 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -0.6 2.3 1.5 0.2 51.8 51.9 0.0 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.8 3.1 2.3 -0.1 49.3 50.2 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------