***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 9.5 11.2 103.3 62.2 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.7 9.0 93.7 58.1 47.4 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.8 10.8 96.0 59.4 49.4 4.1 7.8 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.3 13.9 13.6 107.9 64.9 57.5 6.1 9.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.9 12.6 94.7 58.9 51.4 6.2 9.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.1 8.2 12.8 104.2 63.9 55.6 3.6 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.9 9.2 97.9 59.8 47.8 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.3 12.4 93.2 57.9 51.2 10.4 14.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.5 12.6 93.7 58.4 50.8 4.5 7.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.4 12.2 88.1 55.6 48.9 6.9 10.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.5 12.4 96.5 60.0 53.2 5.0 8.2 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.7 12.0 96.3 60.0 53.4 6.3 9.5 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.6 12.0 91.4 57.3 49.9 5.3 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.3 12.2 9.7 71.2 46.5 40.3 7.9 13.6 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 14.5 16.3 15.7 133.2 73.6 66.0 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.4 12.7 99.0 60.9 53.6 4.8 7.8 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.1 8.3 90.0 56.5 45.6 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 11.3 11.8 82.3 52.5 45.8 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.1 9.3 91.3 57.1 47.2 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.8 13.8 91.4 56.6 48.3 6.0 10.6 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.4 12.2 97.1 59.7 51.1 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.5 8.4 84.4 53.5 44.3 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.8 9.7 85.6 54.1 45.7 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.7 12.5 10.9 81.7 52.2 45.0 7.2 11.8 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.8 12.6 100.0 60.9 52.0 3.9 6.5 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.3 12.5 96.9 61.3 54.0 4.8 7.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.2 11.8 102.2 61.8 51.1 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.6 11.8 14.2 117.1 68.3 61.2 3.9 7.0 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 16.6 11.8 80.5 50.7 43.7 10.0 16.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.9 9.7 97.7 59.9 48.7 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------