***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 9.6 13.3 122.1 70.3 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.9 12.6 117.1 69.1 55.6 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.9 14.6 13.6 123.1 70.5 57.4 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 15.8 18.3 15.3 139.5 75.2 61.9 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.4 19.1 14.5 133.6 73.7 60.9 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 15.6 17.5 15.3 141.3 75.6 63.5 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.9 12.5 117.7 69.4 55.5 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 22.7 15.8 133.3 73.6 61.4 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.1 12.7 14.7 132.0 73.3 60.3 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.8 16.0 15.5 132.5 73.4 60.8 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.5 16.4 14.3 140.1 75.5 62.7 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.4 15.2 14.6 140.9 75.7 63.4 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 17.2 19.2 14.3 138.8 75.1 63.2 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.7 16.4 15.5 121.1 69.8 57.6 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 14.6 19.1 16.7 156.2 78.9 63.4 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 15.3 17.1 14.0 139.4 75.3 62.6 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.2 12.2 117.8 69.6 54.8 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.7 16.7 127.2 71.8 58.9 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.9 12.9 117.4 69.0 55.9 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.4 19.4 120.6 69.7 57.6 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.3 14.3 13.9 127.1 71.7 59.2 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.1 12.4 114.0 68.3 54.3 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.3 13.4 117.9 68.9 56.3 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.7 15.2 125.3 71.2 58.2 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.7 14.1 121.3 70.1 58.1 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.6 16.4 14.7 134.8 74.0 62.7 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.5 13.0 13.7 118.8 69.3 57.1 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 12.9 15.8 15.5 147.7 77.0 62.8 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 22.8 17.6 122.1 70.2 57.5 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.7 10.0 12.9 118.8 69.4 56.1 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------