***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 16.7 12.6 112.0 67.2 53.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.6 11.6 110.3 67.6 55.2 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.1 16.5 13.1 115.0 68.2 54.5 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 14.5 14.0 114.5 68.0 53.7 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 15.3 14.5 117.6 68.8 54.3 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.7 14.1 112.0 66.6 53.8 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.8 14.2 11.5 111.4 67.9 55.4 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 19.1 15.7 118.4 69.1 56.0 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.8 15.1 118.1 68.8 54.6 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.2 15.8 117.7 68.8 55.4 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.2 14.0 118.0 69.0 55.2 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.9 14.0 118.8 69.1 55.8 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.1 13.3 14.2 115.9 67.8 54.9 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.5 19.5 15.7 119.3 69.4 56.5 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.9 13.2 112.8 68.1 54.1 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.1 12.2 13.8 116.0 68.2 54.5 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.7 11.0 110.2 67.7 55.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.8 17.3 118.3 68.9 55.9 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 14.6 12.1 112.1 67.8 55.1 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 16.0 20.2 119.3 69.4 56.3 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.0 14.1 115.2 67.9 53.8 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.4 11.6 110.3 67.8 55.7 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.5 13.2 115.9 68.6 55.2 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.5 14.3 15.7 118.9 69.2 55.8 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.5 16.8 14.2 112.6 67.1 53.6 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.5 14.0 114.7 67.5 54.7 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.6 14.7 13.3 110.9 66.6 53.3 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.4 13.5 113.2 67.9 53.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 19.8 18.5 118.2 68.9 55.8 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 14.1 11.9 111.0 67.5 54.8 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------