***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 8.9 10.8 105.8 65.5 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.3 10.5 107.1 65.9 52.7 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.1 10.5 107.0 65.5 52.8 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.4 16.6 11.2 117.3 69.0 54.4 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.1 14.9 10.5 110.2 66.6 54.0 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 12.1 10.1 109.0 65.9 55.8 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.1 10.5 103.5 64.8 52.7 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 18.6 11.3 106.8 65.2 55.2 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.8 10.5 106.3 65.1 53.2 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.4 13.2 11.1 105.3 64.6 54.5 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.0 9.8 109.2 66.2 55.0 5.2 8.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.3 9.9 107.7 65.7 55.5 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 14.3 10.1 109.0 66.0 56.5 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.8 12.5 109.0 66.1 53.9 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.7 15.0 11.3 126.0 71.8 54.3 3.5 7.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.5 9.7 111.1 66.8 55.6 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.4 11.1 10.6 111.8 67.8 54.2 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.8 12.8 105.1 64.8 54.5 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.4 10.6 109.2 66.4 52.7 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 15.2 16.0 110.6 66.7 55.0 5.5 9.6 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.1 10.6 107.2 65.4 53.2 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.8 10.8 114.8 68.5 54.1 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 11.7 10.9 110.6 66.6 52.9 4.1 7.3 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 14.2 11.8 107.1 65.4 53.8 4.5 8.6 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.8 12.1 111.0 67.1 54.7 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 12.8 9.9 108.2 65.8 56.5 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.7 11.4 11.6 105.5 65.4 53.7 3.3 6.7 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.7 14.0 10.5 119.3 69.6 54.1 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 19.2 14.2 106.9 65.4 54.4 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.7 10.5 105.1 65.1 52.4 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------