***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 6.4 7.5 7.1 3.6 81.2 77.4 2.4 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 6.5 7.4 7.1 3.6 80.3 76.3 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 8.6 9.7 7.8 3.8 81.4 77.7 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.7 3.2 3.7 2.7 73.7 70.2 -1.1 0.7 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 7.8 8.5 5.6 3.4 78.9 75.5 3.3 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 7.0 7.4 4.6 3.0 75.7 72.5 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.2 7.1 6.9 3.5 80.4 76.5 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 1.1 1.5 5.0 3.1 76.8 73.7 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 8.6 9.4 6.6 3.5 79.5 76.1 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 7.6 8.2 5.9 3.4 78.1 74.9 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 8.1 8.7 5.9 3.3 78.3 74.9 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 8.0 8.6 5.3 3.1 77.1 74.0 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.5 5.6 3.2 77.5 74.3 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 9.2 10.4 7.6 4.1 80.9 77.1 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 5.3 5.7 4.7 2.2 70.8 67.3 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 8.5 9.1 5.3 3.3 77.8 74.3 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 5.9 6.8 6.7 3.4 79.6 75.5 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 5.1 5.8 5.9 3.6 78.8 75.5 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 7.4 8.6 7.4 3.7 80.6 76.6 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 4.7 5.5 4.4 3.3 78.5 75.2 0.3 2.2 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 8.3 9.2 7.3 3.6 80.5 76.9 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.4 7.4 7.0 3.4 79.4 75.4 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 7.1 8.2 7.7 3.8 80.9 77.0 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 8.5 9.5 7.3 3.8 80.1 76.6 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 6.4 7.1 5.8 3.2 79.1 75.4 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 6.6 6.9 4.5 2.7 75.7 72.6 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 8.1 9.2 6.7 3.5 81.0 77.2 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.8 7.2 4.4 2.6 72.5 68.9 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 4.9 5.7 5.3 3.5 78.6 75.3 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 6.6 7.6 7.2 3.6 80.9 77.1 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------