***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.4 5.4 2.1 71.5 66.1 1.9 3.9 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.4 5.7 2.5 74.5 69.1 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.9 5.9 2.3 73.0 67.3 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.9 2.3 2.7 1.8 69.7 64.2 -1.4 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.9 3.8 1.9 70.0 64.8 2.7 4.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.1 5.7 3.2 1.6 65.4 62.0 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.4 6.1 5.6 2.4 73.8 68.5 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.6 0.5 3.5 1.7 67.5 63.8 -2.5 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.9 8.1 4.8 2.0 70.4 65.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.0 4.2 1.9 68.6 64.1 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.2 3.8 1.8 68.8 64.2 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.0 3.6 1.7 67.5 63.7 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.4 3.1 1.5 64.8 61.6 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.3 5.5 2.3 71.1 66.5 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.1 5.3 3.6 1.9 70.3 64.9 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.4 3.4 1.7 67.2 62.9 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.8 5.7 2.4 74.4 68.8 1.1 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 5.1 4.9 4.3 1.8 67.6 63.9 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.1 5.9 2.6 74.7 69.1 1.9 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 3.4 2.9 2.5 1.4 64.3 61.8 -0.6 1.3 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.5 5.3 2.0 70.9 65.4 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.5 5.7 2.5 74.3 68.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.7 6.2 2.6 74.5 68.9 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.2 8.3 5.3 2.1 70.5 65.8 3.3 5.6 7.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.5 3.9 1.8 69.3 64.0 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.1 5.7 2.8 1.4 64.9 61.8 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.8 7.1 4.9 2.0 70.5 65.2 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.6 3.2 2.0 70.2 64.6 2.3 4.3 6.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.2 3.7 1.7 66.3 63.3 -0.4 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.4 5.6 2.4 73.9 68.6 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------