***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 6.1 5.6 4.4 2.0 67.8 64.6 1.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.8 5.3 4.4 2.0 68.1 65.1 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 7.8 7.1 4.8 1.9 67.1 64.1 2.5 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 3.2 2.7 1.8 1.9 67.4 63.4 -2.1 0.3 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 7.0 6.6 2.9 1.9 67.5 63.5 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 6.9 6.1 2.4 1.8 66.3 62.5 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 5.5 5.1 4.4 2.0 68.5 65.5 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 0.7 0.3 2.7 1.8 66.5 62.7 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 7.9 7.3 3.8 1.8 66.6 63.1 3.0 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 6.7 6.1 3.3 1.8 66.4 62.8 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 7.2 6.7 3.0 1.9 67.9 63.6 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 8.1 7.3 2.8 1.8 66.9 62.9 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 7.4 6.5 2.4 1.8 66.4 62.6 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 8.0 7.2 4.3 1.7 64.3 61.5 2.8 5.2 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 6.6 6.0 2.6 1.8 67.4 63.5 1.7 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 7.9 7.3 2.6 1.9 67.8 63.4 2.9 5.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 5.1 4.7 4.5 1.9 67.5 64.5 1.0 2.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.0 3.4 1.8 65.5 62.3 0.9 2.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 6.6 5.9 4.6 2.0 67.5 64.6 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 4.1 3.4 1.8 1.7 65.6 62.2 -0.7 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 7.5 6.9 4.2 1.8 66.7 63.4 2.6 4.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 6.1 5.5 4.4 1.8 66.6 63.8 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 6.3 5.5 4.9 1.8 66.3 63.5 1.5 3.6 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 8.5 7.7 4.1 1.7 65.2 62.3 3.3 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 5.7 5.2 2.9 1.9 67.3 63.8 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 6.3 5.7 2.2 1.6 66.5 62.6 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.4 6.9 3.9 1.9 67.7 64.4 2.5 4.7 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 7.6 6.9 2.2 1.9 67.4 63.2 2.0 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 4.6 4.0 2.9 1.8 65.6 62.3 0.0 2.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 5.8 5.3 4.4 2.0 68.1 65.2 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------