***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.8 5.3 1.9 75.3 71.1 2.8 4.0 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 5.1 5.5 5.4 2.1 76.6 72.7 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.2 5.8 2.0 76.0 71.7 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 1.5 1.7 2.4 1.5 70.3 66.3 -0.7 0.4 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.5 3.8 1.7 73.2 68.8 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 5.6 5.6 2.7 1.3 67.6 63.6 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.3 5.3 2.0 76.3 72.5 2.3 3.4 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -0.1 0.1 3.1 1.4 69.5 65.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.4 4.7 1.8 74.2 69.7 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.3 3.9 1.6 71.5 67.4 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.8 3.9 1.7 72.8 68.4 3.8 5.1 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.7 3.4 1.5 70.6 66.6 4.0 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 6.2 6.4 3.4 1.4 69.8 65.6 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.5 5.4 2.0 74.8 70.5 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 4.9 5.1 3.6 1.5 70.7 66.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.2 3.4 1.6 71.7 67.1 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 4.6 5.0 5.3 2.0 76.0 72.0 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 3.9 4.1 3.8 1.6 70.9 66.8 2.0 3.0 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.2 5.6 2.1 76.6 72.6 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.3 3.1 2.1 1.2 67.7 64.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.0 5.3 1.9 74.6 70.1 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 5.3 5.6 5.4 1.9 75.6 71.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.5 6.0 5.8 2.1 76.6 72.3 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 7.2 7.6 5.1 1.9 73.9 69.6 4.4 5.7 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.4 4.0 1.7 72.9 68.6 2.9 4.0 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 5.5 5.4 2.6 1.1 66.5 63.0 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.9 4.8 1.8 74.6 70.3 3.8 5.1 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.0 3.0 1.6 70.4 66.2 3.8 4.8 5.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 3.1 3.2 3.2 1.4 69.6 65.8 0.9 1.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.5 5.4 2.1 76.5 72.6 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------