***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 12.8 14.9 15.0 140.8 75.5 66.8 3.7 6.9 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.3 14.2 12.6 140.4 75.4 63.0 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.6 17.4 14.5 135.8 74.3 65.8 4.1 7.8 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 15.9 18.9 17.8 148.6 77.4 69.6 6.1 9.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 14.0 16.3 19.6 153.0 78.7 72.2 6.2 9.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 9.8 10.8 16.2 139.0 75.2 69.9 3.6 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.1 14.7 11.9 133.2 73.7 61.2 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 21.5 22.7 18.5 128.7 72.3 68.2 10.4 14.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.8 15.6 18.0 146.3 77.1 70.4 4.5 7.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.3 19.3 19.5 136.8 74.6 69.4 6.9 10.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.7 15.8 18.4 142.7 76.2 70.4 5.0 8.2 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 14.7 15.4 16.4 131.5 73.1 68.4 6.3 9.5 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.2 14.3 18.7 137.1 74.8 69.4 5.3 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 23.7 24.2 17.8 126.9 71.7 65.3 7.9 13.6 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 14.6 17.1 13.9 137.5 74.9 65.4 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.4 15.2 17.6 142.1 76.0 69.7 4.8 7.8 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 12.2 11.1 128.5 72.4 58.9 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 16.9 18.5 19.5 129.4 72.4 67.2 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 15.8 18.1 13.1 140.8 75.5 64.6 4.3 8.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 18.4 18.3 20.8 118.6 69.2 65.3 6.0 10.6 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 14.7 16.8 16.9 143.7 76.3 69.0 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.4 14.5 12.0 132.8 73.5 61.4 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.9 17.6 13.7 137.1 74.6 65.6 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 19.1 20.4 17.1 128.0 72.1 65.6 7.2 11.8 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 11.7 14.0 18.9 150.0 77.7 70.1 3.9 6.5 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.9 16.2 132.5 73.4 68.4 4.8 7.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.0 15.4 16.0 141.5 75.7 66.9 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.6 15.0 15.7 144.6 76.5 68.5 3.9 7.0 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 26.4 27.0 19.5 121.4 69.9 65.2 10.0 16.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.8 16.0 13.0 139.3 75.2 63.7 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------