***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.7 12.8 108.9 66.5 56.2 4.0 6.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.0 10.3 12.4 121.5 70.6 60.0 3.8 6.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.5 13.2 12.6 109.9 66.9 57.6 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.3 13.5 104.5 65.1 54.7 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.6 12.8 100.0 63.1 53.5 6.6 10.7 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.4 12.9 102.9 63.9 54.7 6.3 9.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.7 12.7 127.0 72.1 61.0 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.8 17.0 13.3 95.4 61.2 53.4 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.0 13.2 101.8 63.5 55.2 4.6 7.3 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.6 12.5 94.1 60.6 52.8 5.5 9.0 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.9 13.2 100.1 62.8 54.0 5.3 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.2 13.2 100.7 63.0 54.8 5.2 8.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.4 13.7 105.3 64.9 55.8 7.4 11.2 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.6 14.3 104.2 64.6 55.9 6.5 10.3 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.3 12.3 102.8 65.1 53.5 4.0 7.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.6 13.4 13.3 104.0 64.3 54.9 6.4 9.8 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 12.5 14.5 13.8 142.3 75.8 64.0 4.1 7.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.4 12.9 92.1 59.5 52.3 4.5 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.1 12.5 118.3 69.6 59.2 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.8 17.5 96.3 61.8 54.5 6.8 10.6 15.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.1 13.3 106.1 65.1 55.9 4.9 8.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 10.3 12.1 14.1 139.5 75.1 64.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.0 9.2 13.0 115.3 68.4 58.6 3.3 5.6 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.9 12.9 98.0 61.9 54.0 4.5 8.2 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.1 12.8 13.8 106.7 65.6 55.7 4.3 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.7 13.5 102.7 63.6 55.2 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.1 12.6 14.0 114.1 68.1 58.3 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.3 12.4 100.9 64.1 53.2 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.0 18.5 14.6 95.7 61.0 53.9 9.2 14.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.6 10.1 12.4 117.3 69.5 59.4 3.9 6.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------