***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.8 11.0 95.7 61.3 50.1 3.7 7.3 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.0 9.7 90.0 59.8 49.3 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.6 10.7 93.7 60.4 48.5 6.0 10.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.0 11.0 88.3 58.4 45.5 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.4 12.5 11.8 96.4 61.0 47.3 5.7 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.9 11.2 96.8 61.6 47.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.8 9.5 88.9 59.1 48.7 4.0 7.9 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 15.9 12.9 99.1 61.9 48.3 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.7 12.5 98.6 61.6 48.2 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.1 13.1 100.3 62.1 48.3 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.7 12.6 11.9 100.5 62.5 47.3 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.6 11.9 101.3 63.0 48.2 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.4 12.1 100.6 62.7 48.3 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.3 15.4 13.5 96.7 61.0 48.2 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.2 9.7 79.6 55.7 43.0 3.2 7.3 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.2 11.6 99.9 62.4 47.2 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.1 9.4 90.4 59.9 49.0 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 9.6 13.8 100.6 62.0 48.4 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.5 10.0 91.1 60.0 49.2 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 12.3 16.5 95.1 60.4 48.7 5.1 9.0 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.5 10.5 11.5 94.5 60.2 47.7 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.5 10.4 96.6 62.2 50.3 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.7 10.8 91.9 60.0 48.6 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.6 12.8 99.3 61.9 48.3 4.4 8.1 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.9 11.9 93.0 60.0 48.9 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.4 11.6 97.3 61.5 48.3 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.7 11.8 97.3 61.8 50.5 4.6 8.7 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.1 10.7 10.3 89.0 58.8 44.4 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 16.0 14.7 98.9 61.4 48.5 6.5 11.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.5 10.0 91.4 60.2 49.7 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------