***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.3 11.0 98.5 61.8 46.1 3.2 6.3 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.6 9.9 102.4 63.9 45.3 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.6 12.6 10.8 98.9 61.8 46.6 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.3 13.8 12.0 97.0 61.7 48.3 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.3 12.7 11.7 94.6 59.9 48.3 6.1 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.3 10.6 92.9 59.8 48.2 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.3 10.0 106.1 65.4 46.4 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.4 17.1 12.8 98.6 61.4 49.4 8.4 13.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.4 12.4 96.4 60.3 48.4 4.6 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.7 12.8 96.4 60.2 48.9 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.3 11.2 11.4 94.9 59.9 48.4 5.2 8.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.5 11.4 97.9 61.2 48.7 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.8 11.1 92.2 58.7 47.3 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.6 14.8 13.3 99.9 61.9 47.9 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.7 11.4 11.7 98.6 63.5 48.2 3.5 7.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.0 11.0 93.9 59.6 48.2 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.8 10.1 109.6 66.9 46.7 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 13.6 98.7 61.1 49.3 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.5 10.2 101.9 63.6 46.0 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.8 13.5 16.8 100.8 62.4 50.0 5.5 9.6 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.7 11.9 99.0 61.5 48.0 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.8 10.4 106.6 65.7 46.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.9 11.1 104.2 64.1 48.0 4.1 7.3 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.8 12.8 12.7 100.4 62.0 48.8 4.5 8.6 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.9 12.6 100.6 62.6 48.0 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.9 11.3 11.1 98.0 61.4 47.1 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.3 11.7 99.5 62.2 46.9 3.3 6.7 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.0 11.2 95.1 61.4 47.9 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 17.0 14.4 98.7 61.3 49.1 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.9 10.0 99.0 62.4 45.0 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------