***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 42.3 47.1 49.9 110.5 64.4 56.5 26.1 36.3 48.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 40.8 45.8 44.5 112.6 65.6 56.2 25.5 35.2 46.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 53.4 57.9 48.7 109.2 63.5 57.0 37.7 48.3 59.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 53.8 57.7 54.2 109.2 63.5 57.8 38.7 48.8 59.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 60.3 57.1 55.9 111.4 65.0 59.9 41.1 49.2 57.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.5 46.8 50.9 107.9 62.6 56.8 30.1 39.1 49.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.2 50.2 44.1 113.0 65.8 55.8 27.6 38.2 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 69.8 72.0 57.5 106.1 61.2 56.5 56.5 65.7 75.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 48.5 45.0 56.1 110.4 64.4 59.2 30.4 37.9 45.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 50.8 53.2 58.0 107.5 62.2 57.5 39.6 47.2 55.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 55.0 52.2 54.8 109.9 64.0 58.8 39.0 46.0 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 49.3 52.3 52.9 108.1 62.7 57.3 36.2 45.0 54.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 50.2 54.7 55.5 109.7 63.9 58.5 36.8 46.0 56.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 65.7 69.6 58.9 107.0 61.8 56.2 47.9 60.1 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 50.1 52.6 47.6 103.2 60.3 53.8 31.2 43.6 58.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 53.9 50.5 53.5 110.2 64.3 58.7 33.6 42.3 51.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 41.1 48.7 44.4 117.0 68.1 57.4 26.0 35.9 46.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 47.3 48.8 59.8 105.7 60.8 56.6 36.2 43.6 51.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 45.0 50.7 45.8 112.1 65.3 56.9 28.8 39.4 51.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 57.4 58.5 71.7 103.1 59.2 54.7 42.7 52.7 63.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 55.4 51.9 53.6 110.5 64.4 58.7 33.7 42.8 52.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 40.9 49.1 46.9 118.2 68.8 59.3 27.0 36.2 47.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 42.4 47.2 48.8 111.3 64.9 57.6 29.2 38.1 47.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 56.7 59.4 55.5 106.6 61.6 56.7 43.2 52.5 62.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 59.7 55.9 57.3 112.5 65.7 58.5 33.0 43.8 56.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 45.3 48.8 52.4 107.8 62.5 56.7 30.6 40.4 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 48.0 54.6 53.5 112.8 65.9 57.4 29.5 41.2 54.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 46.4 49.4 49.6 106.7 62.1 56.1 32.4 41.9 52.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 78.0 79.8 63.3 104.1 59.7 55.5 62.0 73.0 84.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 42.9 47.8 45.4 110.9 64.6 55.9 26.6 36.8 48.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------