***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.5 11.3 10.1 6.3 96.2 95.0 2.9 4.6 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.7 9.9 9.8 5.9 94.9 93.9 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 8.5 12.4 10.6 6.4 95.9 94.9 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 3.4 6.0 6.8 5.3 91.8 90.6 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.0 11.8 9.2 6.5 95.8 94.9 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.6 10.0 7.0 5.2 91.8 91.1 2.9 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.5 9.8 9.6 5.9 95.1 94.0 2.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 2.3 3.8 6.8 4.6 87.6 86.8 -2.1 -0.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 8.8 12.7 9.8 6.3 95.6 94.6 3.8 5.6 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.2 8.2 5.5 91.4 90.5 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.4 12.0 9.5 6.4 95.0 94.2 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 8.7 11.5 7.8 5.3 92.0 91.3 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.3 11.4 9.1 6.0 93.9 93.0 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 8.9 11.8 9.5 5.7 92.0 90.6 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 7.0 8.0 7.1 3.7 85.4 84.3 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.0 12.6 8.9 6.3 95.1 94.3 3.9 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.1 8.8 9.0 5.4 93.6 92.4 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 5.5 7.0 7.6 5.2 89.8 88.8 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.5 11.1 10.0 6.0 95.1 94.0 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 5.2 5.9 5.1 3.7 82.1 81.4 0.7 2.4 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.4 12.3 10.5 6.4 96.1 95.1 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 6.9 9.6 9.2 5.3 93.3 91.9 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.4 10.1 6.0 95.1 94.0 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 8.8 11.9 9.7 5.9 93.1 92.0 3.7 5.5 7.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.2 10.2 9.1 6.0 94.9 93.7 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.5 9.2 6.7 4.4 89.8 88.9 3.2 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.2 11.7 9.6 6.0 95.4 94.3 3.5 5.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 8.2 10.3 7.2 4.8 89.0 87.8 3.1 5.0 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 4.7 5.9 6.5 4.4 86.0 85.1 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 6.8 10.2 10.0 6.1 95.6 94.6 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------