***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.9 4.3 0.8 58.4 56.9 2.5 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.8 4.1 0.7 57.1 55.8 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.5 4.5 0.6 56.3 55.0 4.0 5.9 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 60.0 58.2 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.0 3.0 0.8 57.7 56.2 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.2 2.1 0.6 56.2 54.9 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 4.3 4.5 4.0 0.7 57.4 56.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -0.6 2.1 0.2 52.4 51.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.6 3.8 0.7 56.8 55.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.4 2.8 0.4 53.5 52.7 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.3 3.3 0.8 58.2 56.5 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.0 2.7 0.6 55.9 54.6 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.9 3.0 0.7 57.1 55.4 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.2 3.6 0.0 50.0 49.5 4.3 6.2 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.1 5.0 3.8 1.6 65.7 63.3 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.7 2.9 0.9 58.5 56.6 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.3 4.2 3.7 0.4 54.4 53.7 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.1 2.4 0.0 49.9 49.5 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.6 4.3 0.7 56.9 55.6 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.8 1.7 0.8 -0.4 45.9 46.5 0.2 2.1 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.3 4.3 0.7 56.6 55.3 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.7 3.9 0.4 53.7 53.2 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.3 4.4 0.6 55.9 54.7 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.0 3.7 0.1 51.4 50.7 4.0 5.9 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.0 3.2 0.8 57.5 56.1 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.1 2.3 0.6 56.8 55.5 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.2 6.4 3.9 0.8 57.8 56.4 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 5.2 5.8 2.8 1.2 61.5 59.5 3.1 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.0 1.7 -0.3 47.2 47.3 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.0 4.2 0.8 57.8 56.4 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------