***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 5.5 6.3 5.7 2.3 79.7 74.9 2.8 4.0 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.1 5.6 5.6 2.2 77.7 73.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 6.8 7.5 6.1 2.3 79.1 74.4 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.0 76.3 71.7 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 6.3 7.0 4.4 2.2 78.9 74.2 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 5.6 6.1 3.4 1.7 74.7 70.0 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 4.9 5.4 5.5 2.2 78.4 74.3 2.3 3.4 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 0.0 0.2 3.5 1.5 71.1 67.2 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.8 5.2 2.1 78.1 73.4 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.5 4.3 1.8 74.2 69.8 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 6.5 7.3 4.6 2.2 78.7 73.9 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.2 4.0 1.8 75.2 70.9 4.0 5.2 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.1 4.2 2.0 77.5 72.7 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.4 5.4 1.8 73.5 68.8 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 4.9 5.4 4.0 1.8 74.2 70.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.0 7.8 4.1 2.2 78.7 73.8 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 4.6 5.0 5.3 2.0 75.7 71.7 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 3.9 4.2 4.2 1.6 72.1 67.7 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.3 5.7 2.2 77.7 73.4 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.0 64.9 61.8 0.6 1.8 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.4 5.7 2.2 78.9 74.2 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.6 5.3 1.9 74.8 70.8 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 5.4 6.1 6.0 2.2 77.4 72.7 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.8 5.4 1.9 75.1 70.3 4.4 5.7 7.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.8 4.4 2.1 77.9 73.1 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.9 3.4 1.6 73.6 69.6 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.5 7.3 5.2 2.2 78.8 74.0 3.8 5.0 6.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.5 3.5 1.9 75.1 70.7 3.8 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.3 68.0 64.3 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.7 5.7 2.3 78.8 74.5 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------