***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 15.0 19.6 17.0 177.5 82.1 77.0 3.3 6.6 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 14.7 22.1 19.9 222.0 87.8 80.8 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 17.8 20.8 15.1 152.0 77.5 72.2 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 15.5 17.4 15.3 129.0 72.6 66.6 6.1 10.0 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 13.2 14.7 15.1 128.8 72.6 66.2 6.0 9.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 11.0 12.7 14.0 136.2 74.2 68.1 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 15.9 25.0 20.3 235.2 88.8 82.1 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 22.9 27.8 22.6 175.7 79.7 74.0 10.0 14.8 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.9 14.5 130.6 73.0 66.8 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.7 19.0 17.7 134.3 73.8 67.6 5.9 9.9 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 9.5 13.9 14.3 119.4 70.0 63.5 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.9 18.2 18.0 157.4 77.8 71.8 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 13.6 13.6 14.8 118.2 69.1 62.8 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 23.5 29.3 21.4 160.3 79.3 71.6 7.5 13.0 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 13.7 16.8 14.1 133.7 73.6 67.0 2.6 6.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.1 15.1 14.8 128.3 72.2 65.8 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 14.5 25.5 23.9 271.0 91.6 84.2 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 17.7 22.6 23.1 167.1 80.8 73.5 5.5 9.4 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 17.8 25.7 18.7 201.6 85.5 78.7 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 23.4 41.0 42.3 274.8 91.0 84.8 6.0 10.9 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.5 16.6 15.1 142.6 75.8 70.3 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 14.5 23.3 24.9 264.4 91.2 84.2 5.2 8.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 16.4 21.5 17.8 176.9 82.1 75.5 4.9 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 18.8 22.3 17.8 143.8 76.2 69.7 6.0 10.6 16.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.2 14.7 18.2 163.2 79.8 74.3 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.0 19.8 19.2 176.5 82.7 77.1 4.2 7.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 15.0 20.6 18.4 186.0 83.4 78.0 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 8.3 12.8 12.8 116.9 69.8 63.2 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 29.8 42.9 30.0 214.0 85.9 78.7 9.7 16.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 17.0 24.1 18.1 200.2 85.2 79.1 4.0 7.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------