***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 10.4 11.3 13.5 129.2 72.5 61.2 3.7 6.1 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.1 10.5 107.5 66.7 55.4 4.2 6.3 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.4 15.4 13.7 133.1 73.6 62.3 5.1 8.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.8 17.3 15.5 132.2 73.3 61.1 6.1 9.8 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.5 17.6 14.9 125.1 71.4 60.5 6.2 10.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.4 15.0 122.5 70.5 60.7 6.6 10.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.6 10.8 113.6 68.3 56.7 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 19.9 21.5 16.9 130.1 72.5 61.6 8.9 13.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.2 15.3 126.9 71.8 61.5 4.2 6.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.4 15.5 16.7 133.6 73.7 63.1 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 14.3 16.7 16.4 136.2 74.4 64.1 5.4 9.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.3 15.6 127.4 71.8 60.8 6.3 9.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 17.1 19.1 17.0 134.6 73.9 63.8 7.1 11.0 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 15.7 16.5 16.7 125.0 71.3 61.8 6.5 10.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 17.8 14.4 136.1 74.4 60.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.4 14.9 14.8 122.8 70.3 59.8 6.5 9.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.6 10.2 9.9 105.9 66.2 54.7 4.1 6.8 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.4 16.2 121.1 70.1 60.6 4.3 7.4 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 9.9 11.3 112.4 67.9 57.0 3.3 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 14.3 15.1 21.4 125.9 71.7 63.5 5.9 9.2 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.5 15.1 14.7 129.3 72.5 61.6 4.9 8.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.3 10.4 104.6 65.5 54.6 3.9 6.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.8 12.9 121.8 70.6 60.1 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.6 15.8 127.5 71.9 61.9 4.6 8.2 13.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.8 17.1 15.4 127.6 72.0 61.2 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.1 14.8 117.4 69.0 59.6 6.9 10.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 14.1 15.1 14.2 127.2 72.0 61.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.8 15.2 14.5 132.3 73.3 60.5 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 20.9 22.4 18.5 125.8 71.5 63.4 7.5 12.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.3 11.3 115.6 69.0 58.0 4.0 6.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------