***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.6 9.1 85.7 56.9 47.6 3.7 7.5 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.7 8.6 92.2 60.3 48.0 4.9 8.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.5 8.7 84.4 56.6 47.2 6.2 10.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.3 9.8 84.2 57.0 48.5 5.0 9.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.5 12.0 10.6 90.7 58.9 50.2 5.3 9.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.2 10.5 97.7 61.5 51.1 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.1 8.2 87.7 58.3 46.3 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.1 15.3 11.6 96.7 60.9 51.4 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.9 11.2 91.7 58.9 50.4 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.0 11.9 96.2 60.4 51.8 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.5 10.2 92.0 59.2 51.3 5.0 8.8 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.2 10.0 93.0 59.5 50.8 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.3 11.1 96.6 60.9 52.2 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.3 12.0 92.0 59.4 50.1 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.2 9.4 84.0 58.7 47.4 3.4 7.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.1 10.0 90.2 58.5 50.3 3.7 7.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.9 8.6 92.9 60.5 46.7 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.8 12.9 97.8 60.8 51.5 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.2 12.2 8.9 93.0 60.4 48.7 4.7 8.8 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 13.5 16.3 100.9 63.0 51.8 5.0 9.1 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.9 10.0 87.0 57.6 49.3 4.1 7.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.1 12.8 9.6 99.2 62.9 48.7 5.0 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.0 9.3 91.4 59.6 49.3 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.7 11.0 90.8 58.6 49.7 5.0 9.1 14.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.1 10.7 87.8 58.0 49.4 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.7 9.8 94.1 61.2 51.4 3.3 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.2 10.1 89.5 58.4 48.8 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.3 9.3 85.3 58.0 48.6 4.1 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.1 17.2 14.2 99.3 61.6 51.6 7.3 12.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.1 8.5 89.7 59.3 47.9 4.5 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------