***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 9.1 10.6 101.2 63.8 49.3 2.8 5.7 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.9 9.6 105.2 65.5 47.4 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.9 10.6 104.0 64.7 49.7 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.0 12.9 12.2 103.0 64.7 49.1 5.1 8.7 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.8 12.0 100.7 63.2 50.1 5.0 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.5 11.5 97.8 62.3 48.9 4.6 7.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.1 9.6 9.1 101.4 64.3 47.2 3.4 6.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.6 13.3 105.7 64.8 50.6 7.0 11.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.5 12.7 103.2 63.8 50.8 4.0 7.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.1 12.1 13.4 104.3 64.0 50.6 4.0 7.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.3 11.7 99.4 62.6 49.0 4.6 7.9 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.9 11.8 103.2 64.0 49.9 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.8 12.5 101.7 63.2 49.6 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.4 14.3 12.9 100.6 62.8 48.7 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.9 11.9 12.8 109.9 68.0 48.3 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.5 11.7 99.2 62.4 48.5 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.7 8.9 101.3 64.3 46.5 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.7 14.2 108.0 65.2 50.9 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.3 9.8 10.0 106.3 65.7 47.9 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 14.5 18.0 112.7 67.2 52.5 4.2 8.2 13.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.5 11.6 103.1 64.2 51.1 4.3 7.7 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.6 8.4 9.9 106.0 65.7 46.6 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.7 10.0 10.5 103.3 64.4 48.6 3.9 6.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.7 12.4 12.4 103.7 64.1 49.9 4.3 8.0 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.5 11.9 99.6 63.3 49.7 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.5 11.7 103.7 64.7 49.9 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.3 11.1 100.4 63.5 49.6 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.1 12.1 105.5 65.7 48.8 3.5 6.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.3 17.8 15.6 111.3 66.4 52.0 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.0 9.5 9.9 105.7 65.6 48.1 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------