***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 50.0 52.2 50.1 122.1 70.5 65.9 25.4 35.9 48.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 49.5 52.7 48.6 130.7 74.1 68.0 24.8 34.4 45.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 51.6 62.2 48.1 118.1 68.5 63.8 37.3 48.0 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 51.9 58.9 52.8 112.1 65.3 60.2 37.8 48.1 59.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 51.5 57.2 52.6 111.3 64.9 60.4 40.7 49.0 57.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 43.4 50.0 51.0 113.2 66.0 60.7 31.0 39.9 50.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 53.4 58.7 48.4 133.0 74.9 69.0 26.7 37.4 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 76.6 80.0 64.4 126.8 73.1 67.3 55.9 65.2 74.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 40.3 45.9 53.7 112.7 65.7 61.2 29.9 37.6 46.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 49.8 57.3 59.8 117.3 68.8 63.7 39.3 47.2 55.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 48.3 53.3 52.6 112.2 65.5 60.7 39.6 46.5 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 48.3 57.3 55.4 120.5 70.0 64.5 36.3 45.1 54.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 50.1 56.7 55.3 113.2 66.1 61.2 37.1 46.6 56.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 74.8 76.1 63.0 119.8 70.0 64.9 47.1 59.3 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 48.3 58.6 50.8 115.2 66.9 60.5 30.2 42.8 57.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 45.4 50.8 51.3 110.4 64.3 59.6 33.8 42.4 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 52.0 58.3 51.4 141.7 78.0 70.9 25.0 35.0 46.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 51.6 54.3 66.4 124.1 72.7 66.8 35.7 42.8 50.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 54.6 57.7 48.9 127.7 73.0 67.2 28.3 38.8 50.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 68.2 79.5 98.0 149.7 82.9 76.2 41.3 51.8 62.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 45.7 53.6 51.5 115.0 67.0 62.8 33.0 42.6 52.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 51.1 57.3 54.8 142.8 78.7 71.3 25.6 35.0 45.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 49.2 50.7 50.5 123.2 71.2 65.9 28.6 37.3 46.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 54.2 62.7 56.9 116.7 68.3 63.1 41.8 51.3 61.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 57.5 58.8 56.1 118.7 69.0 64.5 32.6 43.6 55.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 52.2 55.6 55.5 122.8 71.2 65.5 30.5 40.3 51.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 57.0 60.2 53.8 124.0 71.6 66.5 29.0 40.6 54.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 45.2 50.8 48.7 110.1 64.2 58.7 32.2 41.7 52.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 86.7 94.5 78.3 136.2 78.3 71.8 60.9 72.0 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 51.9 54.7 47.8 126.9 72.5 67.0 26.2 36.6 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------