***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 -0.7 -1.8 -2.7 1.0 59.1 59.5 -4.7 -2.8 -0.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 -1.1 -2.4 -2.8 0.7 57.0 57.8 -5.1 -3.1 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -0.2 -2.7 0.9 58.4 59.0 -2.8 -1.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -3.8 -4.9 -5.5 1.0 59.3 59.6 -8.2 -6.1 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -1.6 -2.7 -5.2 0.8 57.8 59.0 -5.3 -3.5 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -2.1 -3.3 -6.7 1.0 59.9 60.3 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -2.3 -2.7 0.7 56.7 57.3 -4.9 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -5.6 -6.7 -6.4 1.0 59.3 59.0 -9.4 -7.6 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 -0.7 -2.1 -4.7 0.7 56.3 58.1 -4.7 -2.8 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 -1.7 -2.8 -5.9 0.8 57.4 58.3 -5.1 -3.5 -2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 -1.7 -2.8 -5.8 1.0 58.9 59.5 -5.6 -3.8 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 -2.3 -3.3 -6.1 1.3 61.1 60.3 -6.4 -4.5 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -3.3 -3.0 -6.4 1.0 59.5 59.5 -6.1 -4.1 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -1.8 -4.8 0.7 57.0 57.4 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -2.4 -2.2 -4.3 0.9 58.5 59.2 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 -1.1 -2.0 -6.3 1.0 59.4 59.7 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 0.6 55.4 56.2 -5.3 -3.5 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -3.5 -4.7 -6.5 0.9 58.0 58.4 -7.5 -5.6 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 -1.0 -2.3 -2.9 0.8 57.4 58.2 -5.0 -3.1 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -10.8 -7.1 -7.3 0.8 57.1 57.1 -10.3 -8.0 -5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -2.1 -3.6 0.8 57.8 58.8 -4.9 -2.9 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -2.6 -2.8 0.7 56.6 57.2 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -2.4 -3.1 0.8 57.5 58.1 -4.9 -3.1 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 -1.4 -2.5 -5.1 0.8 57.5 58.1 -4.9 -3.2 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -2.3 -4.0 0.9 58.7 59.2 -4.9 -3.2 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 -1.6 -2.4 -6.1 1.4 62.8 61.5 -5.5 -3.7 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 -0.1 -1.4 -3.1 0.9 58.3 58.9 -4.8 -2.5 -0.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -3.4 -3.2 -5.4 0.9 58.9 59.4 -6.3 -4.3 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 -2.8 -4.2 -6.8 0.9 58.2 58.2 -7.1 -5.1 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 -0.6 -1.9 -2.8 0.8 57.7 58.4 -4.9 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------