***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.4 3.1 -1.0 39.5 40.2 2.7 4.4 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.4 2.8 3.3 -0.9 39.8 40.5 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.9 4.4 3.6 -0.8 41.3 41.8 3.5 5.3 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 0.8 -0.1 1.3 -0.3 47.2 47.5 -1.7 0.3 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.6 2.4 -0.4 45.4 45.7 3.4 5.0 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.2 1.2 -0.6 44.3 44.8 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.1 2.5 3.0 -1.0 39.1 39.8 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -0.2 -0.6 2.3 0.1 50.7 50.6 -2.3 -0.6 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.1 5.4 3.4 -0.3 47.2 47.4 3.8 5.7 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 5.4 4.9 2.9 0.0 49.9 49.8 3.3 4.9 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.8 4.9 2.9 -0.4 46.2 46.4 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.3 2.4 -0.2 47.8 48.0 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.7 4.6 2.7 -0.5 44.9 45.2 3.4 5.2 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.1 4.0 -0.3 47.2 47.3 3.4 5.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 4.6 4.1 3.2 -0.2 48.0 48.3 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.3 5.2 2.2 -0.5 44.9 45.2 4.0 5.7 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.8 2.4 3.0 -0.9 40.0 40.7 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 3.3 3.1 2.7 0.1 51.3 51.1 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.9 3.3 3.4 -0.8 40.8 41.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 2.8 2.6 1.7 0.2 52.2 52.0 0.7 2.4 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.9 4.7 3.7 -0.7 43.0 43.4 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.5 3.0 3.4 -0.8 40.4 41.0 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.7 3.6 3.6 -0.7 42.5 43.0 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 6.0 5.2 3.8 -0.3 47.1 47.2 3.7 5.5 7.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.9 3.6 2.5 -0.8 41.1 41.7 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.3 4.3 1.6 -0.6 43.3 43.9 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.1 2.8 -1.0 39.1 39.8 3.4 5.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 5.4 4.7 2.3 -0.2 47.5 47.8 3.0 5.0 6.8 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 2.3 2.2 2.4 0.3 52.6 52.4 0.2 1.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.4 3.0 3.3 -0.9 39.9 40.6 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------