***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.1 4.5 1.0 59.0 57.4 2.6 4.2 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.9 4.3 0.8 57.2 56.0 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.7 4.9 0.9 58.4 56.6 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.2 2.0 2.6 1.5 64.1 61.4 -0.8 0.7 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.4 3.7 1.4 62.9 60.6 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.1 3.5 1.9 67.5 64.6 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.4 4.6 4.2 0.8 57.3 56.0 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.7 0.4 3.8 1.7 66.0 63.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.1 4.5 1.4 62.5 60.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.5 4.2 1.6 64.3 61.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.8 4.1 1.5 63.6 61.1 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.8 3.9 1.6 65.1 62.7 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.6 4.0 1.6 64.8 62.3 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.4 5.0 1.2 60.0 57.6 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.1 4.5 3.7 1.3 62.4 60.1 2.5 3.7 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.1 3.7 1.6 64.3 61.8 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.3 4.1 0.7 56.4 55.2 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 4.5 4.2 4.3 1.7 64.9 62.2 1.7 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.7 4.5 0.8 57.7 56.3 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 4.2 3.9 3.3 2.0 68.2 65.2 0.1 1.9 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.6 4.8 1.1 60.1 58.1 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.8 4.9 4.3 0.6 56.1 54.9 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.6 4.8 0.9 58.5 56.7 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.0 4.9 1.3 61.0 58.6 3.8 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.2 3.7 1.1 60.6 58.7 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.0 3.6 1.8 68.1 65.6 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.5 4.2 1.0 59.4 57.7 3.6 5.5 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.6 3.2 1.5 63.4 60.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.2 3.8 4.0 1.9 66.7 63.7 0.3 2.1 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 4.8 5.0 4.4 0.8 57.7 56.3 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------