***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.1 4.5 1.9 68.8 63.6 1.6 3.7 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.1 5.2 4.1 1.7 66.1 61.9 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.8 7.2 4.7 1.8 67.1 62.2 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 68.8 64.0 -1.3 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 6.8 6.9 3.1 1.9 68.8 63.2 2.6 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.5 3.1 2.1 69.9 64.5 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.8 5.0 4.1 1.7 66.4 62.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 0.6 1.0 3.4 2.1 71.2 65.7 -2.4 -0.9 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.9 4.0 1.9 68.4 62.8 3.2 5.5 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 6.9 7.2 3.8 2.1 69.9 64.3 2.6 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.3 3.3 2.0 70.2 64.3 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.9 3.4 2.1 71.6 66.0 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.6 3.1 2.2 71.7 66.0 2.8 4.8 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.0 4.8 2.1 68.8 63.3 3.1 5.4 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.2 2.7 1.6 66.3 63.0 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.2 3.0 2.1 70.7 64.8 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.6 4.6 4.1 1.5 65.1 61.0 0.8 2.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 4.7 5.2 4.2 2.3 71.8 66.3 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.2 5.9 4.3 1.7 66.0 61.8 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.4 73.1 68.0 -0.5 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.2 4.4 1.9 68.0 62.6 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.3 4.2 1.5 65.1 61.3 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.6 4.7 1.7 66.2 61.6 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 8.0 8.4 4.7 2.1 69.8 64.2 3.2 5.6 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.1 5.5 3.2 1.9 68.8 63.6 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.9 3.2 2.2 73.4 67.9 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.4 7.1 4.1 1.9 69.0 63.7 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.8 2.5 1.8 67.8 63.4 2.6 4.6 6.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 3.9 4.5 3.9 2.4 73.1 67.8 -0.1 1.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.3 4.2 1.7 66.7 62.3 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------